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Hili Finance Company plc – Updated Financial Analysis Summary

Jonathan Falzon

December 12, 2025

12 December, 2025
5 min read
12 December, 2025
5 min read

Following last week's article detailing the performance of the S&P 500 index in 2025, it is worth devoting time to review the developments across the European equity markers in my last article of the year.

On 12 December 2025, Hili Finance Company plc published an updated Financial Analysis Summary including forecasts for the financial year ending 31 December 2025 and projections the year ending 31 December 2026. The following are the main highlights of the expected financial performance and position of Hili Ventures Limited (the Guarantor of the bonds):

  • In 2025, revenue is expected to rise by 9.6% to a record of €1.19 billion (2024: €1.09 billion) reflecting growth in restaurant operations, retail sales, and rental income. The Group continued to open several new restaurants during the year and 2025 will also mark the first full-year of rental income from Tigné Mall.
  • EBITDA is anticipated to increase by 3.8% to €141 million in 2025 from €136 million in the previous year. The higher proportion of operating expenses resulted in the EBITDA margin retracting to 11.8% from 12.5% in the previous year.
  • Financial performance of 2025 is expected to be negatively impacted by a €6 million impairment stemming from a tax litigation case involving its Polish subsidiary, SAD Sp. z o.o. (SAD), which is part of iSpot. Demonstrating prudence, the company has already impaired a corresponding receivable of €6 million, while SAD is evaluating the possibility of pursuing extraordinary legal remedies.
  • In 2026, revenue is expected to grow by a further 9.2% to €1.30 billion as the slight decline in rental income reflecting the planned disposal of real estate classified as held for sale, is expected to be outweighed by the continued expansion across all other business activities of the Group particularly restaurant operations and retail sales.
  • EBITDA is expected to surge by 17.2% to €165 million in 2026 due to a slower rise of operating expenses expected during the year. Consequently, the EBITDA margin is expected to recover to 12.7%.
  • Hili Finance is projecting net finance costs to grow by 14.0% to €31.8 million in 2025, which are also expected to remain practically unchanged in the following financial year.  The increase in net finance costs represents lower interest income and higher interest expense amid higher level of debt including lease liabilities supporting the Group’s expansion. Consequently, the interest cover is forecasted to initially worsen to 4.5 times (2024: 4.9 times) and then improve to 5.2 times in 2026.
  • By the end of 2026, total assets are expected to climb to €1.26 billion compared to €1.16 billion as at 31 December 2024, largely driven by an increase in property and right-of-use assets.
  • Total debt is anticipated to increase to €721 million by the end of 2026 from €666 million in 2024. Net debt is projected at €677 million at the end of 2026 compared to €590 million at the end of 2024.
  • The gearing ratio (calculated as total debt divided by total debt plus equity) is anticipated to ease marginally to 69% as at 31 December 2026 from 70% as at the end of 2024.
  • Meanwhile the net debt-to-EBITDA multiple is anticipated to improve to 4.1 times in 2026 from 4.3 times in 2024 and 4.7 times in 2025.

The article contains public information only and is published solely for informational purposes. It should not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this article. Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd (“Rizzo Farrugia”) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Since the buying and selling of securities by any person is dependent on that person’s financial situation and an assessment of the suitability and appropriateness of the proposed transaction, no person should act upon any recommendation in this article without first obtaining investment advice. Rizzo Farrugia, its directors, the author of this article, other employees or clients may have or have had interests in the securities referred to herein and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent. Furthermore, Rizzo Farrugia may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or has provided other services of a corporate nature to companies herein mentioned. Stock markets are volatile and subject to fluctuations which cannot be reasonably foreseen. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security mentioned in this article. Neither Rizzo Farrugia, nor any of its directors or employees accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this article. Additional information can be made available upon request from Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd., Airways House, Fourth Floor, High Street, Sliema SLM 1551. Telephone: +356 2258 3000; Email: info@rizzofarrugia.com; Website: www.rizzofarrugia.com © 2021 Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd. All rights reserved. This article may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Rizzo Farrugia. Moreover, Rizzo Farrugia accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This article was produced by Edward Rizzo, Director at Rizzo Farrugia, which is a company licensed to undertake investment services in Malta by the MFSA under the Investment Services Act, Cap. 370 of the Laws of Malta and a member of the Malta Stock Exchange. The company’s registered address is at Airways House, Fourth Floor, High Street, Sliema SLM 1551, Malta.

The article contains public information only and is published solely for informational purposes. It should not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this article. Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd (“Rizzo Farrugia”) is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Since the buying and selling of securities by any person is dependent on that person’s financial situation and an assessment of the suitability and appropriateness of the proposed transaction, no person should act upon any recommendation in this article without first obtaining investment advice. Rizzo Farrugia, its directors, the author of this article, other employees or clients may have or have had interests in the securities referred to herein and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent. Furthermore, Rizzo Farrugia may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or has provided other services of a corporate nature to companies herein mentioned. Stock markets are volatile and subject to fluctuations which cannot be reasonably foreseen. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security mentioned in this article. Neither Rizzo Farrugia, nor any of its directors or employees accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this article. Additional information can be made available upon request from Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd., Airways House, Fourth Floor, High Street, Sliema SLM 1551. Telephone: +356 2258 3000; Email: info@rizzofarrugia.com; Website: www.rizzofarrugia.com © 2021 Rizzo, Farrugia & Co. (Stockbrokers) Ltd. All rights reserved. This article may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Rizzo Farrugia. Moreover, Rizzo Farrugia accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This article was produced by Edward Rizzo, Director at Rizzo Farrugia, which is a company licensed to undertake investment services in Malta by the MFSA under the Investment Services Act, Cap. 370 of the Laws of Malta and a member of the Malta Stock Exchange. The company’s registered address is at Airways House, Fourth Floor, High Street, Sliema SLM 1551, Malta.

On 12 December 2025, Hili Finance Company plc published an updated Financial Analysis Summary including forecasts for the financial year ending 31 December 2025 and projections the year ending 31 December 2026. The following are the main highlights of the expected financial performance and position of Hili Ventures Limited (the Guarantor of the bonds):

  • In 2025, revenue is expected to rise by 9.6% to a record of €1.19 billion (2024: €1.09 billion) reflecting growth in restaurant operations, retail sales, and rental income. The Group continued to open several new restaurants during the year and 2025 will also mark the first full-year of rental income from Tigné Mall.
  • EBITDA is anticipated to increase by 3.8% to €141 million in 2025 from €136 million in the previous year. The higher proportion of operating expenses resulted in the EBITDA margin retracting to 11.8% from 12.5% in the previous year.
  • Financial performance of 2025 is expected to be negatively impacted by a €6 million impairment stemming from a tax litigation case involving its Polish subsidiary, SAD Sp. z o.o. (SAD), which is part of iSpot. Demonstrating prudence, the company has already impaired a corresponding receivable of €6 million, while SAD is evaluating the possibility of pursuing extraordinary legal remedies.
  • In 2026, revenue is expected to grow by a further 9.2% to €1.30 billion as the slight decline in rental income reflecting the planned disposal of real estate classified as held for sale, is expected to be outweighed by the continued expansion across all other business activities of the Group particularly restaurant operations and retail sales.
  • EBITDA is expected to surge by 17.2% to €165 million in 2026 due to a slower rise of operating expenses expected during the year. Consequently, the EBITDA margin is expected to recover to 12.7%.
  • Hili Finance is projecting net finance costs to grow by 14.0% to €31.8 million in 2025, which are also expected to remain practically unchanged in the following financial year.  The increase in net finance costs represents lower interest income and higher interest expense amid higher level of debt including lease liabilities supporting the Group’s expansion. Consequently, the interest cover is forecasted to initially worsen to 4.5 times (2024: 4.9 times) and then improve to 5.2 times in 2026.
  • By the end of 2026, total assets are expected to climb to €1.26 billion compared to €1.16 billion as at 31 December 2024, largely driven by an increase in property and right-of-use assets.
  • Total debt is anticipated to increase to €721 million by the end of 2026 from €666 million in 2024. Net debt is projected at €677 million at the end of 2026 compared to €590 million at the end of 2024.
  • The gearing ratio (calculated as total debt divided by total debt plus equity) is anticipated to ease marginally to 69% as at 31 December 2026 from 70% as at the end of 2024.
  • Meanwhile the net debt-to-EBITDA multiple is anticipated to improve to 4.1 times in 2026 from 4.3 times in 2024 and 4.7 times in 2025.